The Book of Not-Knowing
I’m working on a new book about not-knowing and what to do about it. This is an attempt to force myself to think about and write this book in public. The bullets below go to individual pages that may become components of the book. Each page is a draft, and the link goes live when the draft seems minimally human-readable. I would love comments on drafts, and you can find all articles open for public comment here.
Warning: The ideas in each page may still be half-baked.
- Not-knowing as the basis for innovation
- Knowing and not-knowing
- Risk ≠ uncertainty
- How to know when you are secretly in a risk mindset
- What is a mindset
- Why mindset-situation correspondence is important
- What is an uncertainty mindset
- Many types of true uncertainty
- Uncertainty is the only source of the new
- Action uncertainty
- Action-outcome uncertainty
- Outcome uncertainty
- Outcome preference uncertainty
- The urge to be sure
- Cognitive vs affective blocks
- Recognizing the risk mindset in action
- Comparing risk and uncertainty mindsets in decisionmaking
- When can you trust quantified unknowns?
- The urge to numerate and quantify
- Using gut to decide instead of numbers
- Using tools that trigger negotiation and convergence when you can’t use numbers to do it
- Not-knowing as the basis for growth
- Efficiency and slack and innovation and risk and uncertainty
- Different heuristics for decisionmaking under uncertainty
- Tools for thought associated with different heuristics for decisionmaking under uncertainty
- How to become a person/team/organization that can adopt uncertainty
- Cognitive dissonance (seeing uncertainty and trying to pretend it is risk) and how to get over it
- How to build uncertainty into life and process
- The difference between productive and unproductive uncertainty
My first book was about uncertainty and how organizations can design themselves better around it. You can find out more about The Uncertainty Mindset here.