Most people think all unknowns are just “risk” — something you can solve with maths. But there are actually unknowns that aren’t risky. There are four different types of not-knowing that aren’t risky, and each type needs a different way to deal with it.
Risk is the type of unknown where you don’t know exactly what will happen, but you know the exact chances of things happening and so you can do maths to figure out what you should do. Flipping a coin is an example of risk: You don’t know in advance whether the coin will land heads or tails, but you know each side has the same chance of showing up.
Uncertainty is the type of unknown where you don’t know the exact chances of things happening, and so you can’t do the maths to figure out what you should do. Trying to guess what job you’ll do ten years from now is an example of uncertainty: There’s no way to accurately calculate the chances of being in any particular job, or even to know what jobs might exist in the future.
Not-knowing includes both risk and uncertainty. It’s any time you don’t have all the information you need about what’s going to happen. We often run into at least four types of not-knowing that aren’t risky: Not knowing what you can do, not knowing what might happen, not knowing how what you do connects to what happens, and not knowing what’s valuable.
Not-knowing is uncomfortable and stressful because it feels as though there’s no clear or obvious way to act or figure out what you should do. Dealing with not-knowing can become easier if we give different names to the different kinds of not-knowing that aren’t risky. This is because each type of not-knowing needs a different way of handling it, and giving them all different names lets us understand how to handle each type better.
Think about starting a new video game. You face different types of not-knowing:
Each question needs a different approach to get a good answer. In the same way, we face different types of not-knowing in everyday life. Seeing the differences between these types of not-knowing helps us deal with them better.
Assuming that all unknowns are risky means using maths and numbers to deal with every unknown. This is like using a calculator to pick your favorite color — it doesn’t work. The calculator’s not the right tool for the job.
We need different tools for each type of unknown we face. If not, we might make the wrong decisions and do the wrong things. During COVID-19 where there were many risky and non-risky unknowns about what to do, some leaders made the mistake of thinking that all the unknowns were risky. They used maths from previous diseases to decide what to do about COVID-19, and this made them make many wrong decisions.
People use “risk” for all kinds of not-knowing, even when maths won’t help. It’s like calling every animal a “cat” — it creates confusion when you need to talk about many different types of animals.
Luckily, we don’t have to assume that all unknowns are risky and use maths for all unknowns. We can learn to spot when we face types of not-knowing that aren’t risky, give them different names, and use the right approach for each. (That’s what this game was about.)
Understanding the different types of not-knowing we face is a powerful life skill. It helps you be more comfortable living in a world where things change a lot and you don’t know exactly what will happen. It also helps you get better at being creative and solving problems. When you understand not-knowings, you realise that you don’t need to know everything to be happy in our changing world.
To learn more about not-knowings, visit https://vaughntan.org/nksynthesis or scan the QR code below